Chief Minister Mufti Mohammad Sayeed expects Prime Minister Narendra Modi’s visit, his first since the PDP-BJP coalition took over, to be a “turning point in the history of Jammu and Kashmir”. He compares it with then prime minister Atal Behari Vajpayee’s visit to the state 2003 which generated a lot of goodwill. There indeed are high expectations among people from this visit. Here are five reasons why Modi’s address is important:
Economic package
The flood of September 2014 left the state economically devastated. It expected a substantial economic package from the Centre for reconstruction and compensation to victims. However, so far, it has received only Rs 2,000 crore, a miniscule part of the demand. To make matters worse, several agencies involved in the rescue mission have sent hefty bills to the state. The state and central governments have been negotiating a package for three months now and the prime minister is expected to make it public during his rally. Media reports suggest the package could be worth anywhere between Rs 112 lakh crore and Rs 81,000 crore.
Dialogue
PDP patron Mufti Sayeed has recalled Vajpayee’s address in 2003 more than once since the ruling coalition was formed earlier this year. “I see this visit as an opportunity for history to repeat itself,” he has been saying. The Prime Minister’s rally, after he inaugurates the phase two of Baghlihar hydro-electric power project in Jammu, is scheduled in the Sher-e-Kashmir stadium of Srinagar, the same venue where Vajpayee addressed Kashmiris. If Modi vouches for a meaningful dialogue it will be a major development towards peace.
Hurriyat Conference chief Mirwaiz Umar Farooq recently said the Centre government should follow the path of the former PM and launch a process of “dialogue” and “engagement” with separatists and Pakistan. “Kashmir is not an administrative or an economic problem but a political issue. Instead of hacking at the leaves, the minister should address the root cause,” he said. He also said that he would be willing to engage in talks if the prime minister were to initiate talks with Pakistan too.
Million March
Senior separatist politician Syed Ali Geelani of Hurriyat has called for a ‘Million March’ on the day of Modi’s rally. Unlike during previous such visits separatists have not called for a strike. It means the government will have to enforce some sort of restriction to make it incident-free. It will be a big challenge for the security establishment in the state to contain the law and order situation in the valley and at the same time ensure massive attendance for the rally. The ‘Million March’ has already resulted in a major crackdown on the separatist camp. Sources said more than 237 political activists; ex-militants have been taken under preventive custody already.
PDP-BJP alliance
Since its formation, the PDP-BJP alliance has been through several ups and downs. Many in the valley, including some leaders in the PDP itself, have been wary of the BJP’s stand on several issues related to Kashmir. The prime minister’s address can make things easy for the Mufti’s party, which is still receiving brickbats for partnering a party against which it was campaigning all the while, or it can make things worse by ignorinf the fault lines.
Mufti Sayeed
Sayeed has been hard-selling the Vajpayee era. He talks about the former prime minister’s “big heart” in addressing Pakistan from Srinagar. He wants Modi’s help in reducing tension across the three regions of the state that have witnessed division on communal basis in recent times. He also wants some shift in Delhi’s Pakistan policy besides a package that will help his government manage a turnaround especially for the people who have suffered during floods.
Modi has visited the state seven times after becoming prime minister, but this his first after coming in alliance with the PDP. What he says would have an effect not just on the PDP but personally on Mufti as well. There are already rumors in Kashmir that Mufti is ready to hand over the chief minister’s chair to his daughter Mehbooba Mufti in a couple of months. Saturdays rally will provide a hint to whether it will happen.
